Why, if computers are fast, cheap and easy to carry (laptops that is), would anyone even consider switching to web applications?
I mean, think of it:
- They lack features compared to the client-based ones.
- You usually have to be online to use them.
- They have inferior user interface.
- They’re saved somewhere, by someone, who can actually see everything you write.
- They’re used by few.
- You don’t really need to access your files from everywhere. It’s not like the average Joe is working from Cybercafes all over the world because he was sick the day they issued the laptops at the office.
- We’ve been there before. Talks of thin clients running remote apps have been around forever (at least since the 80s’. Like I said – forever).
So what has changed? Why is it going to work now? This is why:
- Psychology. People are more used to virtualization. It’s “OK” if the file is stored “somewhere” and not in the “touchable” hard drive under the desk. People who are used to using Flickr and Picasa will start switching to Google Docs, Zoho and the like.
- Multi platform. True that everyone has a laptop, but people sometimes have more than one. And a desktop at the office. And another (Mac maybe?) at home. Oh, and the iPhone, don’t forget the iPhone. Or the Blackberry. We want to reach our data from everywhere. Regardless of the platform.
- Reliability. What are you more afraid of: Your hard disk, with the pictures from your daughter’s first b-day dying on you one wintery day, or the servers of Flickr going blank all of a sudden?
- Offline and online mixing. With tools like Google Gears, and Zoho working offline, it’s no longer a matter of whether you have a connection or not. You can work all the time. And these are “bridging” solutions. Soon there won’t be a need for them. We’ll be connected all the time from every device (iMicrowave, here we come!).
- Simplicity. We only want to write a letter. Calculate something on a worksheet. We don’t need to merge automated lists and Goal Seek on an every day basis. And if we do, we can always revert to the “heavy artillery” on the desktop. And hey – we don’t need all these little icons we never use. Simple is the king. We’re overwhelmed by information as it is, thank you.
- Synchronization. Online and offline files will be one.
- UI and Functionality are becoming very close. With AJAX and keyboard shortcuts for web aps, they start to look and resemble in ease of use the desktop ones. Even for power users.
- Everyon’s having them. From Microsoft, to Adobe, to Google (Da!), to smaller competitors.
I don’t think it’s the end of the client-based software. Not so soon (they will merge eventually) but 2008 will be the year when it goes mainstream.
Update: It appears the subject is hot. Joe Wilcox covering Microsoft thinks web based office is dead:
“…the channel strategies aren’t working. Awareness is poor and very few consumers use the services. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer can sleep easy tonight.”
Mashable, were I heard of this quote, is running a little survey of it’s own. Mashable is not read by a very “homogenized” crowd, but I believe it’s worth listening to them geeks.
Update 2: Here’s the original survey that started all the commotion.
Read: 73% of Americans never heard of Google Docs.
Still. The wind of change is here.
